Superforecasting

Picture this. It’s 2011 and Doug Lorch, a retired IBM programmer, is in a forecasting tournament. He is competing against professional intelligence officers. He stuns everyone with his accuracy in predicting geopolitical events. A retiree with no formal training in geopolitics is outperforming experts. How is that even possible?

We welcome you to the intriguing world of superforecasting. It is unveiled by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner in their book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction”. This insightful work breaks down the art of predicting the future. What is often thought to be a special gift is actually a skill. It can be learned and mastered.

Lesson 1: Perceptiveness

Superforecasting heavily hinges on attentiveness to details. The saga of Doug Lorch is a case in point. He’s an ordinary man with extraordinary perceptiveness. Armed with insatiable curiosity, Lorch could assimilate knowledge from varied sources. He interpreted the available information astutely and predicted world events with remarkable accuracy. His example shows that perceptiveness is less about consuming lots of information and more about making sense of available data.

The lesson here is not to hoard information. Strive to be discerning when processing available information. Keep your curiosity ignited. Scrutinize minutia and don’t hesitate to question the obvious.

Lesson 2: Perceptiveness

Superforecasting trades absolute certainties for probabilities. It grants room for ambiguity. The Good Judgement Project is an acclaimed example of this. In this project, a group of average individuals used probabilistic models. They outperformed trained intelligence officers in a forecasting tournament. By moving from definitive answers to odds and likelihoods, they made consistent and superior predictions.

Avoid a binary mindset when evaluating scenarios. Embrace ambiguities. Consider degrees of uncertainty at play. Your goal should be to think in ranges and odds instead of absoluteness.

Lesson 3: Perceptiveness

The ideal superforecaster improves through continuous learning. Bill Flack’s remarkable journey is a testament to this. Despite his initially inaccurate forecasts, he was receptive to feedback. He committed to growth and constantly refined his methods. This paved his way to becoming a skilled superforecaster.

In forecasting and life, stasis is your enemy. Maintain an open mind. Be willing to learn from feedback. Refine your systems continuously. Your constant endeavor should be for growth. For that, a continuous learning mindset is indispensable.

Conclusion

”Superforecasting” leads us on a fascinating journey into the future predictions realm. Along the way, we learn to cultivate perceptiveness, embrace probabilistic thinking, and commit to lifelong learning. With these tools in our kit, each of us can become a proficient superforecaster.

Remember, these are not overnight changes. They require consistent practice and some patience. To delve deeper into superforecasting, check out “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.